Hypotheses · age-wfa · H154-three-year-olds-against-elders-over-a-mile-and-a-half-plus
H154: three year olds against elders over a mile and a half plus
tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 1.005 on 5074 bets (broad RED)
Starts the thread “H154: three year olds against elders over a mile and a half plus” 1 hypothesis
- Proposed
- Designed
- Discovery
- Promising
- Falsification
- Frozen
- Vault
- Provisional
- Shadow
- Validated
- Live
- Source
- Imported from the overnight batches
- Made by
- import
- Created
- 15 Oct, 23:10
- Tests logged
- 1
Mechanism and rationale
Three-year-olds meeting older horses in Flat handicaps over 12f+: the scale is most generous at long trips and stayers improve fastest at three, so the allowance over-compensates.
The rule
race_type = 'Flat' AND is_handicap = 1 AND age = 3 AND distance_yards >= 2640 AND race_id IN (SELECT race_id FROM lab.runs GROUP BY race_id HAVING MIN(age) = 3 AND MAX(age) >= 4)
Reads: race_type, is_handicap, age, distance_yards, race_id, select, from, lab
Pre-registration
- Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)
- not designed yet
- Frozen
- not frozen
- The definition can still change.
- Broad
race_type = 'Flat' AND is_handicap = 1 AND age = 3 AND distance_yards >= 2640 AND race_id IN (SELECT race_id FROM lab.runs GROUP BY race_id HAVING MIN(age) = 3 AND MAX(age) >= 4)
- Kind
all
- Origin
research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl
- Refinements
none
- Tier
C
Result (from the archive)
info broad · 15 Oct, 23:10
- Bets
- 5,074
- A/E
- 1.00
- winners vs the prices
- SP return
- -21.4%
- level stakes
- Betfair SP return
- -0.4%
- 761 bets with a BSP
Strike rate 14.8%.
By period
Falsification
No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.
Sealed holdout (vault)
Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.
Forward record
No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.
Lineage
No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.
Agent runs
No agent has worked on this yet.
Timeline
H154-three-year-olds-against-elders-over-a-mile-and-a-half-plus Discovery → KILLED import: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 1.005 on 5074 bets (broad RED)
· importer
import result for H154-three-year-olds-against-elders-over-a-mile-and-a-half-plus (broad): info
· importer
New idea H154-three-year-olds-against-elders-over-a-mile-and-a-half-plus: H154: three year olds against elders over a mile and a half plus (import)
· importer
Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.