H158: one run at two returns at three

Mechanism and rationale

A three-year-old with exactly one run, back after 150+ days in a non-handicap from March to June: the single run at two was an education and the horse is a different animal now; its form figure is all the market has.

The rule

race_type = 'Flat' AND is_handicap = 0 AND age = 3 AND prior_runs = 1 AND days_since_last_run >= 150 AND month IN (3, 4, 5, 6)

Reads: race_type, is_handicap, age, prior_runs, days_since_last_run, month

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Broad

race_type = 'Flat' AND is_handicap = 0 AND age = 3 AND prior_runs = 1 AND days_since_last_run >= 150 AND month IN (3, 4, 5, 6)

Kind

all

Origin

research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl

Refinements

[
  {
    "name": "beaten on debut",
    "rule": "(race_type = 'Flat' AND is_handicap = 0 AND age = 3 AND prior_runs = 1 AND days_since_last_run >= 150 AND month IN (3, 4, 5, 6)) AND ((last_position IS NULL OR last_position > 1))"
  },
  {
    "name": "unplaced on debut",
    "rule": "(race_type = 'Flat' AND is_handicap = 0 AND age = 3 AND prior_runs = 1 AND days_since_last_run >= 150 AND month IN (3, 4, 5, 6)) AND ((last_position IS NULL OR last_position >= 4))"
  },
  {
    "name": "a mile or more",
    "rule": "(race_type = 'Flat' AND is_handicap = 0 AND age = 3 AND prior_runs = 1 AND days_since_last_run >= 150 AND month IN (3, 4, 5, 6)) AND (distance_yards >= 1760)"
  }
]

Tier

C

Result (from the archive)

info a mile or more · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

1,138

A/E

0.96

winners vs the prices

SP return

-15.2%

level stakes

Betfair SP return

+13.4%

181 bets with a BSP

Strike rate 14.5%.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. H158-one-run-at-two-returns-at-three Discovery → KILLED import: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [unplaced on debut] RED A/E 1.003 on 1342 bets (broad RED)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. import result for H158-one-run-at-two-returns-at-three (a mile or more): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

3. import result for H158-one-run-at-two-returns-at-three (unplaced on debut): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

4. import result for H158-one-run-at-two-returns-at-three (beaten on debut): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

5. import result for H158-one-run-at-two-returns-at-three (broad): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

6. New idea H158-one-run-at-two-returns-at-three: H158: one run at two returns at three (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.