H160: two year old debutant at an awkward track

Mechanism and rationale

NEGATIVE: a two-year-old newcomer at an undulating or very sharp track. Greenness costs most where a horse has to balance, turn and change legs.

The rule

age = 2 AND race_type = 'Flat' AND prior_runs = 0 AND (track_undulations = 'undulating' OR track_sharpness = 3)

Reads: age, race_type, prior_runs, track_undulations, track_sharpness

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Broad

age = 2 AND race_type = 'Flat' AND prior_runs = 0 AND (track_undulations = 'undulating' OR track_sharpness = 3)

Kind

all

Origin

research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl

Refinements

[
  {
    "name": "favourite or second favourite",
    "rule": "(age = 2 AND race_type = 'Flat' AND prior_runs = 0 AND (track_undulations = 'undulating' OR track_sharpness = 3)) AND (sp_rank <= 2)"
  },
  {
    "name": "undulating and sharp",
    "rule": "(age = 2 AND race_type = 'Flat' AND prior_runs = 0 AND (track_undulations = 'undulating' OR track_sharpness = 3)) AND (track_undulations = 'undulating' AND track_sharpness >= 2)"
  }
]

Tier

C

Result (from the archive)

info undulating and sharp · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

1,565

A/E

0.97

winners vs the prices

SP return

-40.5%

level stakes

Betfair SP return

-22.3%

169 bets with a BSP

Strike rate 8.8%.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. H160-two-year-old-debutant-at-an-awkward-track Discovery → KILLED import: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [favourite or second favourite] AMBER A/E 1.074 on 480 bets (broad RED)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. import result for H160-two-year-old-debutant-at-an-awkward-track (undulating and sharp): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

3. import result for H160-two-year-old-debutant-at-an-awkward-track (favourite or second favourite): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

4. import result for H160-two-year-old-debutant-at-an-awkward-track (broad): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

5. New idea H160-two-year-old-debutant-at-an-awkward-track: H160: two year old debutant at an awkward track (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.