H161: top weight in a nursery

Mechanism and rationale

Top weight in a nursery: between two-year-olds the class gap is wider than the handicapper can bridge after three runs, and the market dislikes the big weight on a baby.

The rule

is_nursery = 1 AND weight_rank_high = 1

Reads: is_nursery, weight_rank_high

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Broad

is_nursery = 1 AND weight_rank_high = 1

Kind

all

Origin

research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl

Refinements

[
  {
    "name": "field of 10 or more",
    "rule": "(is_nursery = 1 AND weight_rank_high = 1) AND (field_size >= 10)"
  },
  {
    "name": "won last time",
    "rule": "(is_nursery = 1 AND weight_rank_high = 1) AND (last_position = 1)"
  },
  {
    "name": "14/1 or shorter",
    "rule": "(is_nursery = 1 AND weight_rank_high = 1) AND (sp_decimal <= 15)"
  }
]

Tier

C

Result (from the archive)

info 14/1 or shorter · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

2,294

A/E

0.95

winners vs the prices

SP return

-19.1%

level stakes

Betfair SP return

-0.6%

354 bets with a BSP

Strike rate 19.0%.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. H161-top-weight-in-a-nursery Discovery → KILLED import: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [field of 10 or more] RED A/E 0.985 on 1079 bets (broad RED)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. import result for H161-top-weight-in-a-nursery (14/1 or shorter): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

3. import result for H161-top-weight-in-a-nursery (won last time): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

4. import result for H161-top-weight-in-a-nursery (field of 10 or more): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

5. import result for H161-top-weight-in-a-nursery (broad): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

6. New idea H161-top-weight-in-a-nursery: H161: top weight in a nursery (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.