H164: old stayers

Mechanism and rationale

Seven-year-olds and older in Flat handicaps over two miles or more: stayers peak late and keep their form for years; the market wants the progressive four-year-old.

The rule

race_type = 'Flat' AND is_handicap = 1 AND distance_yards >= 3520 AND age >= 7

Reads: race_type, is_handicap, distance_yards, age

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Broad

race_type = 'Flat' AND is_handicap = 1 AND distance_yards >= 3520 AND age >= 7

Kind

all

Origin

research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl

Refinements

[
  {
    "name": "turf",
    "rule": "(race_type = 'Flat' AND is_handicap = 1 AND distance_yards >= 3520 AND age >= 7) AND (surface = 'Turf')"
  },
  {
    "name": "14/1 or shorter",
    "rule": "(race_type = 'Flat' AND is_handicap = 1 AND distance_yards >= 3520 AND age >= 7) AND (sp_decimal <= 15)"
  },
  {
    "name": "soft or heavy",
    "rule": "(race_type = 'Flat' AND is_handicap = 1 AND distance_yards >= 3520 AND age >= 7) AND (going_group IN ('soft', 'heavy'))"
  }
]

Tier

C

Result (from the archive)

info soft or heavy · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

343

A/E

1.09

winners vs the prices

SP return

-37.2%

level stakes

Betfair SP return

+3.1%

32 bets with a BSP

Strike rate 8.5%.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. H164-old-stayers Discovery → KILLED import: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [soft or heavy] AMBER A/E 1.093 on 343 bets (broad RED)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. import result for H164-old-stayers (soft or heavy): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

3. import result for H164-old-stayers (14/1 or shorter): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

4. import result for H164-old-stayers (turf): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

5. import result for H164-old-stayers (broad): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

6. New idea H164-old-stayers: H164: old stayers (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.