H168: four year olds in handicap hurdles before may

Mechanism and rationale

Four-year-olds in handicap hurdles from January to April: still juveniles, improving week by week, and the handicapper can only rate what he has seen.

The rule

race_type = 'Hurdle' AND is_handicap = 1 AND age = 4 AND month <= 4

Reads: race_type, is_handicap, age, month

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Broad

race_type = 'Hurdle' AND is_handicap = 1 AND age = 4 AND month <= 4

Kind

all

Origin

research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl

Refinements

[
  {
    "name": "four hurdle runs or fewer",
    "rule": "(race_type = 'Hurdle' AND is_handicap = 1 AND age = 4 AND month <= 4) AND (hurdle_runs <= 4)"
  },
  {
    "name": "field of 12 or more",
    "rule": "(race_type = 'Hurdle' AND is_handicap = 1 AND age = 4 AND month <= 4) AND (field_size >= 12)"
  },
  {
    "name": "14/1 or shorter",
    "rule": "(race_type = 'Hurdle' AND is_handicap = 1 AND age = 4 AND month <= 4) AND (sp_decimal <= 15)"
  }
]

Tier

N

Result (from the archive)

info 14/1 or shorter · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

796

A/E

0.91

winners vs the prices

SP return

-22.9%

level stakes

Betfair SP return

-40.4%

130 bets with a BSP

Strike rate 13.6%.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. H168-four-year-olds-in-handicap-hurdles-before-may Discovery → PROMISING import: tier N: a negative; best [four hurdle runs or fewer] NEGATIVE A/E 0.925 on 973 bets (broad RED)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. import result for H168-four-year-olds-in-handicap-hurdles-before-may (14/1 or shorter): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

3. import result for H168-four-year-olds-in-handicap-hurdles-before-may (field of 12 or more): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

4. import result for H168-four-year-olds-in-handicap-hurdles-before-may (four hurdle runs or fewer): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

5. import result for H168-four-year-olds-in-handicap-hurdles-before-may (broad): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

6. New idea H168-four-year-olds-in-handicap-hurdles-before-may: H168: four year olds in handicap hurdles before may (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Promising.