Hypotheses · age-career · H170-old-novice-hurdler

H170: old novice hurdler

KILLEDredFailed a test or its forward record. Kept: failures are knowledge.

tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 0.997 on 3847 bets (broad RED)

Starts the thread “H170: old novice hurdler” 1 hypothesis

Proposed
Designed
Discovery
Promising
Falsification
Frozen
Vault
Provisional
Shadow
Validated
Live

Source: Imported from the overnight batches
Made by: import
Created: 15 Oct, 23:10
Tests logged: 1

Mechanism and rationale

NEGATIVE: aged seven or more with at most one hurdle run, in a novice or maiden hurdle. A late start usually means a problem, and it meets five-year-olds with their careers ahead of them.

The rule

race_type = 'Hurdle' AND age >= 7 AND hurdle_runs <= 1 AND (is_novice = 1 OR is_maiden = 1)

Reads: race_type, age, hurdle_runs, is_novice, is_maiden

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec): not designed yet
Frozen: not frozen; The definition can still change.

Broad: race_type = 'Hurdle' AND age >= 7 AND hurdle_runs <= 1 AND (is_novice = 1 OR is_maiden = 1)
Kind: all
Origin: research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl
Refinements: none
Tier: C

Result (from the archive)

info broad · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets: 3,847
A/E: 1.00; winners vs the prices
SP return: -47.2%; level stakes
Betfair SP return: +194.0%; 370 bets with a BSP

0.80dashed line 1.00 · no interval recorded1.20

Strike rate 6.2%.

By period

betsA/E0.71.01.3

2020-222,1551.07

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

H170-old-novice-hurdler Discovery → KILLED import: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 0.997 on 3847 bets (broad RED)
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer
import result for H170-old-novice-hurdler (broad): info
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer
New idea H170-old-novice-hurdler: H170: old novice hurdler (import)
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.