H174: veteran back from a long absence

Mechanism and rationale

NEGATIVE: a jumper aged ten or more on its first run for 250+ days. Old horses take far longer to get fit and a long absence at that age is rarely a holiday.

The rule

race_type IN ('Hurdle', 'Chase') AND age >= 10 AND days_since_last_run >= 250

Reads: race_type, age, days_since_last_run

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Broad

race_type IN ('Hurdle', 'Chase') AND age >= 10 AND days_since_last_run >= 250

Kind

all

Origin

research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl

Refinements

[
  {
    "name": "first three in the betting",
    "rule": "(race_type IN ('Hurdle', 'Chase') AND age >= 10 AND days_since_last_run >= 250) AND (sp_rank <= 3)"
  },
  {
    "name": "chase",
    "rule": "(race_type IN ('Hurdle', 'Chase') AND age >= 10 AND days_since_last_run >= 250) AND (race_type = 'Chase')"
  }
]

Tier

C

Result (from the archive)

info chase · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

1,018

A/E

0.98

winners vs the prices

SP return

-33.5%

level stakes

Betfair SP return

+2.9%

194 bets with a BSP

Strike rate 7.2%.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. H174-veteran-back-from-a-long-absence Discovery → KILLED import: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 1.049 on 1564 bets (broad RED)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. import result for H174-veteran-back-from-a-long-absence (chase): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

3. import result for H174-veteran-back-from-a-long-absence (first three in the betting): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

4. import result for H174-veteran-back-from-a-long-absence (broad): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

5. New idea H174-veteran-back-from-a-long-absence: H174: veteran back from a long absence (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.