Hypotheses · track-stamina · H182-first-try-at-a-longer-trip-at-an-easy-track
H182: first try at a longer trip at an easy track
tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 1.014 on 16836 bets (broad RED)
Starts the thread “H182: first try at a longer trip at an easy track” 1 hypothesis
- Proposed
- Designed
- Discovery
- Promising
- Falsification
- Frozen
- Vault
- Provisional
- Shadow
- Validated
- Live
- Source
- Imported from the overnight batches
- Made by
- import
- Created
- 15 Oct, 23:10
- Tests logged
- 1
Mechanism and rationale
Up 15%+ in trip, never tried within a furlong of it, at a sharp or speed track with no stiff finish: the easiest place to get a new trip, and the market prices the stamina doubt the same everywhere.
The rule
((track_speed_track = 1 OR track_sharpness >= 2) AND track_stiff_finish = 0 AND track_stamina_test = 0) AND distance_yards >= last_distance_yards * 1.15 AND runs_at_trip = 0 AND prior_runs >= 3
Reads: track_speed_track, track_sharpness, track_stiff_finish, track_stamina_test, distance_yards, last_distance_yards, runs_at_trip, prior_runs
Pre-registration
- Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)
- not designed yet
- Frozen
- not frozen
- The definition can still change.
- Broad
((track_speed_track = 1 OR track_sharpness >= 2) AND track_stiff_finish = 0 AND track_stamina_test = 0) AND distance_yards >= last_distance_yards * 1.15 AND runs_at_trip = 0 AND prior_runs >= 3
- Kind
all
- Origin
research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl
- Refinements
none
- Tier
C
Result (from the archive)
info broad · 15 Oct, 23:10
- Bets
- 16,836
- A/E
- 1.01
- winners vs the prices
- SP return
- -25.5%
- level stakes
- Betfair SP return
- -10.3%
- 2,629 bets with a BSP
Strike rate 10.9%.
By period
Falsification
No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.
Sealed holdout (vault)
Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.
Forward record
No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.
Lineage
No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.
Agent runs
No agent has worked on this yet.
Timeline
H182-first-try-at-a-longer-trip-at-an-easy-track Discovery → KILLED import: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 1.014 on 16836 bets (broad RED)
· importer
import result for H182-first-try-at-a-longer-trip-at-an-easy-track (broad): info
· importer
New idea H182-first-try-at-a-longer-trip-at-an-easy-track: H182: first try at a longer trip at an easy track (import)
· importer
Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.