H184: stamina in the bank on heavy

Mechanism and rationale

Jumps on heavy ground, last win over at least a quarter of a mile further than today: on heavy every race is run over a longer trip than the one on the card.

The rule

race_type IN ('Hurdle', 'Chase') AND going_group = 'heavy' AND last_win_yards >= distance_yards + 440

Reads: race_type, going_group, last_win_yards, distance_yards

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Broad

race_type IN ('Hurdle', 'Chase') AND going_group = 'heavy' AND last_win_yards >= distance_yards + 440

Kind

all

Origin

research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl

Refinements

[
  {
    "name": "testing-ground track",
    "rule": "(race_type IN ('Hurdle', 'Chase') AND going_group = 'heavy' AND last_win_yards >= distance_yards + 440) AND (track_testing_ground = 1)"
  },
  {
    "name": "chase",
    "rule": "(race_type IN ('Hurdle', 'Chase') AND going_group = 'heavy' AND last_win_yards >= distance_yards + 440) AND (race_type = 'Chase')"
  },
  {
    "name": "beaten last time",
    "rule": "(race_type IN ('Hurdle', 'Chase') AND going_group = 'heavy' AND last_win_yards >= distance_yards + 440) AND ((last_position IS NULL OR last_position > 1))"
  }
]

Tier

B

Result (from the archive)

info beaten last time · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

1,077

A/E

1.11

winners vs the prices

SP return

-9.7%

level stakes

Betfair SP return

+38.4%

291 bets with a BSP

Strike rate 12.3%.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. H184-stamina-in-the-bank-on-heavy Discovery → PROMISING import: tier B: interesting, unproven; best [beaten last time] AMBER A/E 1.111 on 1077 bets (broad AMBER)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. import result for H184-stamina-in-the-bank-on-heavy (beaten last time): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

3. import result for H184-stamina-in-the-bank-on-heavy (chase): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

4. import result for H184-stamina-in-the-bank-on-heavy (testing-ground track): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

5. import result for H184-stamina-in-the-bank-on-heavy (broad): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

6. New idea H184-stamina-in-the-bank-on-heavy: H184: stamina in the bank on heavy (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Promising.