H186: never won this way round

Mechanism and rationale

NEGATIVE: two or more wins, six or more runs on today's hand, and none of the wins on it.

The rule

track_direction IN ('left', 'right') AND prior_direction_runs >= 6 AND prior_direction_wins = 0 AND prior_wins >= 2

Reads: track_direction, prior_direction_runs, prior_direction_wins, prior_wins

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Broad

track_direction IN ('left', 'right') AND prior_direction_runs >= 6 AND prior_direction_wins = 0 AND prior_wins >= 2

Kind

all

Origin

research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl

Refinements

[
  {
    "name": "chase",
    "rule": "(track_direction IN ('left', 'right') AND prior_direction_runs >= 6 AND prior_direction_wins = 0 AND prior_wins >= 2) AND (race_type = 'Chase')"
  },
  {
    "name": "first three in the betting",
    "rule": "(track_direction IN ('left', 'right') AND prior_direction_runs >= 6 AND prior_direction_wins = 0 AND prior_wins >= 2) AND (sp_rank <= 3)"
  }
]

Tier

N

Result (from the archive)

info first three in the betting · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

3,139

A/E

0.97

winners vs the prices

SP return

-16.7%

level stakes

Betfair SP return

0.0%

704 bets with a BSP

Strike rate 18.3%.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. H186-never-won-this-way-round Discovery → PROMISING import: tier N: a negative; best [broad] NEGATIVE A/E 0.924 on 11013 bets (broad NEGATIVE)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. import result for H186-never-won-this-way-round (first three in the betting): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

3. import result for H186-never-won-this-way-round (chase): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

4. import result for H186-never-won-this-way-round (broad): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

5. New idea H186-never-won-this-way-round: H186: never won this way round (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Promising.