Hypotheses · track-weight · H194-top-weight-on-quick-ground-at-an-easy-track
H194: top weight on quick ground at an easy track
tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 0.984 on 4974 bets (broad RED)
Starts the thread “H194: top weight on quick ground at an easy track” 1 hypothesis
- Proposed
- Designed
- Discovery
- Promising
- Falsification
- Frozen
- Vault
- Provisional
- Shadow
- Validated
- Live
- Source
- Imported from the overnight batches
- Made by
- import
- Created
- 15 Oct, 23:10
- Tests logged
- 1
Mechanism and rationale
Top weight in a jumps handicap on good or faster ground at a sharp or speed track: weight is carried most easily where the race is fastest and shortest, so class wins.
The rule
race_type IN ('Hurdle', 'Chase') AND is_handicap = 1 AND weight_rank_high = 1 AND going_group IN ('good', 'good_to_firm', 'firm') AND ((track_speed_track = 1 OR track_sharpness >= 2) AND track_stiff_finish = 0 AND track_stamina_test = 0)Reads: race_type, is_handicap, weight_rank_high, going_group, track_speed_track, track_sharpness, track_stiff_finish, track_stamina_test
Pre-registration
- Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)
- not designed yet
- Frozen
- not frozen
- The definition can still change.
- Broad
race_type IN ('Hurdle', 'Chase') AND is_handicap = 1 AND weight_rank_high = 1 AND going_group IN ('good', 'good_to_firm', 'firm') AND ((track_speed_track = 1 OR track_sharpness >= 2) AND track_stiff_finish = 0 AND track_stamina_test = 0)
- Kind
all
- Origin
research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl
- Refinements
none
- Tier
C
Result (from the archive)
info broad · 15 Oct, 23:10
- Bets
- 4,974
- A/E
- 0.98
- winners vs the prices
- SP return
- -21.0%
- level stakes
- Betfair SP return
- -10.0%
- 835 bets with a BSP
Strike rate 16.5%.
By period
Falsification
No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.
Sealed holdout (vault)
Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.
Forward record
No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.
Lineage
No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.
Agent runs
No agent has worked on this yet.
Timeline
H194-top-weight-on-quick-ground-at-an-easy-track Discovery → KILLED import: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 0.984 on 4974 bets (broad RED)
· importer
import result for H194-top-weight-on-quick-ground-at-an-easy-track (broad): info
· importer
New idea H194-top-weight-on-quick-ground-at-an-easy-track: H194: top weight on quick ground at an easy track (import)
· importer
Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.