Hypotheses · track-surface · H196-exposed-turf-horse-first-time-on-the-all-weather
H196: exposed turf horse first time on the all weather
tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 0.998 on 3122 bets (broad RED)
Starts the thread “H196: exposed turf horse first time on the all weather” 1 hypothesis
- Proposed
- Designed
- Discovery
- Promising
- Falsification
- Frozen
- Vault
- Provisional
- Shadow
- Validated
- Live
- Source
- Imported from the overnight batches
- Made by
- import
- Created
- 15 Oct, 23:10
- Tests logged
- 1
Mechanism and rationale
NEGATIVE: six or more runs, none on an artificial surface, and on the all-weather today. The turf form sets the price; the surface is a different game with kickback and no give.
The rule
race_type = 'Flat' AND surface = 'AW' AND prior_surface_runs = 0 AND prior_runs >= 6 AND flat_runs >= 6
Reads: race_type, surface, prior_surface_runs, prior_runs, flat_runs
Pre-registration
- Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)
- not designed yet
- Frozen
- not frozen
- The definition can still change.
- Broad
race_type = 'Flat' AND surface = 'AW' AND prior_surface_runs = 0 AND prior_runs >= 6 AND flat_runs >= 6
- Kind
all
- Origin
research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl
- Refinements
none
- Tier
C
Result (from the archive)
info broad · 15 Oct, 23:10
- Bets
- 3,122
- A/E
- 1.00
- winners vs the prices
- SP return
- -24.8%
- level stakes
- Betfair SP return
- -22.9%
- 444 bets with a BSP
Strike rate 8.9%.
By period
Falsification
No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.
Sealed holdout (vault)
Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.
Forward record
No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.
Lineage
No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.
Agent runs
No agent has worked on this yet.
Timeline
H196-exposed-turf-horse-first-time-on-the-all-weather Discovery → KILLED import: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 0.998 on 3122 bets (broad RED)
· importer
import result for H196-exposed-turf-horse-first-time-on-the-all-weather (broad): info
· importer
New idea H196-exposed-turf-horse-first-time-on-the-all-weather: H196: exposed turf horse first time on the all weather (import)
· importer
Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.