H197: all weather horse first time on turf

Mechanism and rationale

Four or more runs, all on the all-weather, and on turf for the first time. Two-sided: the market distrusts all-weather form on grass, and the mark was earned on a different surface.

The rule

race_type = 'Flat' AND surface = 'Turf' AND prior_surface_runs = 0 AND flat_runs >= 4 AND flat_runs = prior_runs

Reads: race_type, surface, prior_surface_runs, flat_runs, prior_runs

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Broad

race_type = 'Flat' AND surface = 'Turf' AND prior_surface_runs = 0 AND flat_runs >= 4 AND flat_runs = prior_runs

Kind

all

Origin

research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl

Refinements

[
  {
    "name": "handicap",
    "rule": "(race_type = 'Flat' AND surface = 'Turf' AND prior_surface_runs = 0 AND flat_runs >= 4 AND flat_runs = prior_runs) AND (is_handicap = 1)"
  },
  {
    "name": "good or faster",
    "rule": "(race_type = 'Flat' AND surface = 'Turf' AND prior_surface_runs = 0 AND flat_runs >= 4 AND flat_runs = prior_runs) AND (going_group IN ('good', 'good_to_firm', 'firm'))"
  },
  {
    "name": "14/1 or shorter",
    "rule": "(race_type = 'Flat' AND surface = 'Turf' AND prior_surface_runs = 0 AND flat_runs >= 4 AND flat_runs = prior_runs) AND (sp_decimal <= 15)"
  }
]

Tier

N

Result (from the archive)

info 14/1 or shorter · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

974

A/E

0.91

winners vs the prices

SP return

-26.2%

level stakes

Betfair SP return

-9.4%

132 bets with a BSP

Strike rate 12.0%.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. H197-all-weather-horse-first-time-on-turf Discovery → PROMISING import: tier N: a negative; best [handicap] NEGATIVE A/E 0.91 on 1697 bets (broad RED)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. import result for H197-all-weather-horse-first-time-on-turf (14/1 or shorter): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

3. import result for H197-all-weather-horse-first-time-on-turf (good or faster): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

4. import result for H197-all-weather-horse-first-time-on-turf (handicap): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

5. import result for H197-all-weather-horse-first-time-on-turf (broad): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

6. New idea H197-all-weather-horse-first-time-on-turf: H197: all weather horse first time on turf (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Promising.