Hypotheses · race-class · H205-favourite-in-the-lowest-grade-of-flat-handicap
H205: favourite in the lowest grade of flat handicap
tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 0.996 on 11389 bets (broad RED)
Starts the thread “H205: favourite in the lowest grade of flat handicap” 1 hypothesis
- Proposed
- Designed
- Discovery
- Promising
- Falsification
- Frozen
- Vault
- Provisional
- Shadow
- Validated
- Live
- Source
- Imported from the overnight batches
- Made by
- import
- Created
- 15 Oct, 23:10
- Tests logged
- 1
Mechanism and rationale
NEGATIVE: the favourite in a class 6 Flat handicap. The worst horses are the least consistent; a favourite's price assumes it will repeat its form.
The rule
race_type = 'Flat' AND is_handicap = 1 AND race_class = 6 AND is_favourite = 1
Reads: race_type, is_handicap, race_class, is_favourite
Pre-registration
- Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)
- not designed yet
- Frozen
- not frozen
- The definition can still change.
- Broad
race_type = 'Flat' AND is_handicap = 1 AND race_class = 6 AND is_favourite = 1
- Kind
all
- Origin
research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl
- Refinements
none
- Tier
C
Result (from the archive)
info broad · 15 Oct, 23:10
- Bets
- 11,389
- A/E
- 1.00
- winners vs the prices
- SP return
- -9.8%
- level stakes
- Betfair SP return
- -0.5%
- 1,860 bets with a BSP
Strike rate 29.2%.
By period
Falsification
No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.
Sealed holdout (vault)
Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.
Forward record
No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.
Lineage
No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.
Agent runs
No agent has worked on this yet.
Timeline
H205-favourite-in-the-lowest-grade-of-flat-handicap Discovery → KILLED import: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 0.996 on 11389 bets (broad RED)
· importer
import result for H205-favourite-in-the-lowest-grade-of-flat-handicap (broad): info
· importer
New idea H205-favourite-in-the-lowest-grade-of-flat-handicap: H205: favourite in the lowest grade of flat handicap (import)
· importer
Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.