H224: midwinter break then back in january or february

Mechanism and rationale

Jumps handicap in January and February after a break of 60 to 149 days: missed the worst of the ground on purpose and is being brought back for the spring; the market reads an interrupted season.

The rule

race_type IN ('Hurdle', 'Chase') AND is_handicap = 1 AND month IN (1, 2) AND days_since_last_run BETWEEN 60 AND 149

Reads: race_type, is_handicap, month, days_since_last_run

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Broad

race_type IN ('Hurdle', 'Chase') AND is_handicap = 1 AND month IN (1, 2) AND days_since_last_run BETWEEN 60 AND 149

Kind

all

Origin

research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl

Refinements

[
  {
    "name": "chase",
    "rule": "(race_type IN ('Hurdle', 'Chase') AND is_handicap = 1 AND month IN (1, 2) AND days_since_last_run BETWEEN 60 AND 149) AND (race_type = 'Chase')"
  },
  {
    "name": "14/1 or shorter",
    "rule": "(race_type IN ('Hurdle', 'Chase') AND is_handicap = 1 AND month IN (1, 2) AND days_since_last_run BETWEEN 60 AND 149) AND (sp_decimal <= 15)"
  },
  {
    "name": "good or good to soft",
    "rule": "(race_type IN ('Hurdle', 'Chase') AND is_handicap = 1 AND month IN (1, 2) AND days_since_last_run BETWEEN 60 AND 149) AND (going_group IN ('good', 'good_to_soft'))"
  }
]

Tier

N

Result (from the archive)

info good or good to soft · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

1,302

A/E

1.04

winners vs the prices

SP return

-28.1%

level stakes

Betfair SP return

-27.5%

163 bets with a BSP

Strike rate 9.1%.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. H224-midwinter-break-then-back-in-january-or-february Discovery → PROMISING import: tier N: a negative; best [chase] NEGATIVE A/E 0.824 on 1270 bets (broad NEGATIVE)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. import result for H224-midwinter-break-then-back-in-january-or-february (good or good to soft): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

3. import result for H224-midwinter-break-then-back-in-january-or-february (14/1 or shorter): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

4. import result for H224-midwinter-break-then-back-in-january-or-february (chase): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

5. import result for H224-midwinter-break-then-back-in-january-or-february (broad): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

6. New idea H224-midwinter-break-then-back-in-january-or-february: H224: midwinter break then back in january or february (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Promising.