H225: festival runner out again in april

Mechanism and rationale

NEGATIVE: ran at Cheltenham 14 to 50 days ago and runs again in April. The Festival is the hardest race of the season and was the target; the form reads as the best in the field.

The rule

race_type IN ('Hurdle', 'Chase') AND month = 4 AND last_course_id = (SELECT course_id FROM lab.runs WHERE course = 'CHELTENHAM' LIMIT 1) AND days_since_last_run BETWEEN 14 AND 50

Reads: race_type, month, last_course_id, select, course_id, from, lab

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Broad

race_type IN ('Hurdle', 'Chase') AND month = 4 AND last_course_id = (SELECT course_id FROM lab.runs WHERE course = 'CHELTENHAM' LIMIT 1) AND days_since_last_run BETWEEN 14 AND 50

Kind

all

Origin

research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl

Refinements

[
  {
    "name": "favourite or second favourite",
    "rule": "(race_type IN ('Hurdle', 'Chase') AND month = 4 AND last_course_id = (SELECT course_id FROM lab.runs WHERE course = 'CHELTENHAM' LIMIT 1) AND days_since_last_run BETWEEN 14 AND 50) AND (sp_rank <= 2)"
  },
  {
    "name": "unplaced at Cheltenham",
    "rule": "(race_type IN ('Hurdle', 'Chase') AND month = 4 AND last_course_id = (SELECT course_id FROM lab.runs WHERE course = 'CHELTENHAM' LIMIT 1) AND days_since_last_run BETWEEN 14 AND 50) AND ((last_position IS NULL OR last_position >= 4))"
  },
  {
    "name": "at Aintree",
    "rule": "(race_type IN ('Hurdle', 'Chase') AND month = 4 AND last_course_id = (SELECT course_id FROM lab.runs WHERE course = 'CHELTENHAM' LIMIT 1) AND days_since_last_run BETWEEN 14 AND 50) AND (course = 'AINTREE')"
  },
  {
    "name": "not at Aintree",
    "rule": "(race_type IN ('Hurdle', 'Chase') AND month = 4 AND last_course_id = (SELECT course_id FROM lab.runs WHERE course = 'CHELTENHAM' LIMIT 1) AND days_since_last_run BETWEEN 14 AND 50) AND (course != 'AINTREE')"
  }
]

Tier

N

Result (from the archive)

info not at Aintree · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

903

A/E

0.92

winners vs the prices

SP return

-33.9%

level stakes

Betfair SP return

-43.9%

163 bets with a BSP

Strike rate 15.3%.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. H225-festival-runner-out-again-in-april Discovery → PROMISING import: tier N: a negative; best [unplaced at Cheltenham] NEGATIVE A/E 0.841 on 1121 bets (broad NEGATIVE)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. import result for H225-festival-runner-out-again-in-april (not at Aintree): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

3. import result for H225-festival-runner-out-again-in-april (at Aintree): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

4. import result for H225-festival-runner-out-again-in-april (unplaced at Cheltenham): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

5. import result for H225-festival-runner-out-again-in-april (favourite or second favourite): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

6. import result for H225-festival-runner-out-again-in-april (broad): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

7. New idea H225-festival-runner-out-again-in-april: H225: festival runner out again in april (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Promising.