H230: first try at a longer trip in the mud away from stiff tracks

Mechanism and rationale

Control for H183: up 15%+ in trip, never tried within a furlong of it, on soft or heavy, at a track that is NOT stiff or stamina-testing. If this also beats the market the edge is the mud and the step up, not the track.

The rule

(track_stamina_test = 0 AND track_stiff_finish = 0) AND going_group IN ('soft', 'heavy') AND distance_yards >= last_distance_yards * 1.15 AND runs_at_trip = 0 AND prior_runs >= 3

Reads: track_stamina_test, track_stiff_finish, going_group, distance_yards, last_distance_yards, runs_at_trip, prior_runs

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Broad

(track_stamina_test = 0 AND track_stiff_finish = 0) AND going_group IN ('soft', 'heavy') AND distance_yards >= last_distance_yards * 1.15 AND runs_at_trip = 0 AND prior_runs >= 3

Kind

all

Origin

research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl

Refinements

[
  {
    "name": "jumps",
    "rule": "((track_stamina_test = 0 AND track_stiff_finish = 0) AND going_group IN ('soft', 'heavy') AND distance_yards >= last_distance_yards * 1.15 AND runs_at_trip = 0 AND prior_runs >= 3) AND (race_type IN ('Hurdle', 'Chase'))"
  },
  {
    "name": "Flat",
    "rule": "((track_stamina_test = 0 AND track_stiff_finish = 0) AND going_group IN ('soft', 'heavy') AND distance_yards >= last_distance_yards * 1.15 AND runs_at_trip = 0 AND prior_runs >= 3) AND (race_type = 'Flat')"
  }
]

Tier

N

Result (from the archive)

info Flat · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

1,617

A/E

0.94

winners vs the prices

SP return

-32.3%

level stakes

Betfair SP return

-10.1%

186 bets with a BSP

Strike rate 9.6%.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. H230-first-try-at-a-longer-trip-in-the-mud-away-from-stiff-tracks Discovery → PROMISING import: tier N: a negative; best [jumps] NEGATIVE A/E 0.929 on 4134 bets (broad NEGATIVE)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. import result for H230-first-try-at-a-longer-trip-in-the-mud-away-from-stiff-tracks (Flat): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

3. import result for H230-first-try-at-a-longer-trip-in-the-mud-away-from-stiff-tracks (jumps): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

4. import result for H230-first-try-at-a-longer-trip-in-the-mud-away-from-stiff-tracks (broad): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

5. New idea H230-first-try-at-a-longer-trip-in-the-mud-away-from-stiff-tracks: H230: first try at a longer trip in the mud away from stiff tracks (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Promising.