H232: proven over further on soft ground away from stiff finishes

Mechanism and rationale

Control for H181: last win over a furlong and a half further, on soft or heavy, at a track WITHOUT a stiff finish. Mud should do what the hill does: turn stamina into speed.

The rule

track_stiff_finish = 0 AND going_group IN ('soft', 'heavy') AND last_win_yards >= distance_yards + 330

Reads: track_stiff_finish, going_group, last_win_yards, distance_yards

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Broad

track_stiff_finish = 0 AND going_group IN ('soft', 'heavy') AND last_win_yards >= distance_yards + 330

Kind

all

Origin

research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl

Refinements

[
  {
    "name": "Flat, six furlongs or less",
    "rule": "(track_stiff_finish = 0 AND going_group IN ('soft', 'heavy') AND last_win_yards >= distance_yards + 330) AND (race_type = 'Flat' AND distance_yards <= 1340)"
  },
  {
    "name": "jumps",
    "rule": "(track_stiff_finish = 0 AND going_group IN ('soft', 'heavy') AND last_win_yards >= distance_yards + 330) AND (race_type IN ('Hurdle', 'Chase'))"
  },
  {
    "name": "heavy",
    "rule": "(track_stiff_finish = 0 AND going_group IN ('soft', 'heavy') AND last_win_yards >= distance_yards + 330) AND (going_group = 'heavy')"
  }
]

Tier

B

Result (from the archive)

info heavy · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

1,410

A/E

1.04

winners vs the prices

SP return

-21.0%

level stakes

Betfair SP return

-29.5%

314 bets with a BSP

Strike rate 12.7%.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. H232-proven-over-further-on-soft-ground-away-from-stiff-finishes Discovery → PROMISING import: tier B: interesting, unproven; best [Flat, six furlongs or less] AMBER A/E 1.196 on 100 bets (broad AMBER)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. import result for H232-proven-over-further-on-soft-ground-away-from-stiff-finishes (heavy): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

3. import result for H232-proven-over-further-on-soft-ground-away-from-stiff-finishes (jumps): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

4. import result for H232-proven-over-further-on-soft-ground-away-from-stiff-finishes (Flat, six furlongs or less): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

5. import result for H232-proven-over-further-on-soft-ground-away-from-stiff-finishes (broad): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

6. New idea H232-proven-over-further-on-soft-ground-away-from-stiff-finishes: H232: proven over further on soft ground away from stiff finishes (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Promising.