Hypotheses · hidden-fitness · H26-all-weather-fit-at-the-start-of-the-turf-season
H26: all weather fit at the start of the turf season
tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 1.001 on 5843 bets (broad RED)
Starts the thread “H26: all weather fit at the start of the turf season” 1 hypothesis
- Proposed
- Designed
- Discovery
- Promising
- Falsification
- Frozen
- Vault
- Provisional
- Shadow
- Validated
- Live
- Source
- Imported from the overnight batches
- Made by
- import
- Created
- 15 Oct, 23:10
- Tests logged
- 1
Mechanism and rationale
March-April on turf: a horse with a run on the all-weather in the last 45 days is fit; the turf returners are not.
The rule
race_type = 'Flat' AND surface = 'Turf' AND month IN (3, 4) AND last_surface = 'AW' AND days_since_last_run <= 45
Reads: race_type, surface, month, last_surface, days_since_last_run
Pre-registration
- Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)
- not designed yet
- Frozen
- not frozen
- The definition can still change.
- Broad
race_type = 'Flat' AND surface = 'Turf' AND month IN (3, 4) AND last_surface = 'AW' AND days_since_last_run <= 45
- Kind
all
- Origin
research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl
- Refinements
none
- Tier
C
Result (from the archive)
info broad · 15 Oct, 23:10
- Bets
- 5,843
- A/E
- 1.00
- winners vs the prices
- SP return
- -22.5%
- level stakes
- Betfair SP return
- -8.7%
- 1,005 bets with a BSP
Strike rate 9.4%.
By period
Falsification
No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.
Sealed holdout (vault)
Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.
Forward record
No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.
Lineage
No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.
Agent runs
No agent has worked on this yet.
Timeline
H26-all-weather-fit-at-the-start-of-the-turf-season Discovery → KILLED import: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 1.001 on 5843 bets (broad RED)
· importer
import result for H26-all-weather-fit-at-the-start-of-the-turf-season (broad): info
· importer
New idea H26-all-weather-fit-at-the-start-of-the-turf-season: H26: all weather fit at the start of the turf season (import)
· importer
Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.