H37: closer in a race full of front runners

Mechanism and rationale

Held up last time, in a race today where three or more runners led last time: the pace should collapse for it.

The rule

last_run_style = 'held_up' AND n_led_last >= 3 AND n_styled_last >= 6

Reads: last_run_style, n_led_last, n_styled_last

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Broad

last_run_style = 'held_up' AND n_led_last >= 3 AND n_styled_last >= 6

Kind

remarks

Origin

research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl

Refinements

[
  {
    "name": "Flat",
    "rule": "(last_run_style = 'held_up' AND n_led_last >= 3 AND n_styled_last >= 6) AND (race_type = 'Flat')"
  },
  {
    "name": "jumps",
    "rule": "(last_run_style = 'held_up' AND n_led_last >= 3 AND n_styled_last >= 6) AND (race_type IN ('Hurdle', 'Chase'))"
  },
  {
    "name": "strong finish last time",
    "rule": "(last_run_style = 'held_up' AND n_led_last >= 3 AND n_styled_last >= 6) AND (last_strong_finish = 1)"
  }
]

Tier

N

Result (from the archive)

info strong finish last time · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

173

A/E

0.57

winners vs the prices

SP return

-55.3%

level stakes

Betfair SP return

-45.7%

173 bets with a BSP

Strike rate 5.8%.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. H37-closer-in-a-race-full-of-front-runners Discovery → PROMISING import: tier N: a negative; best [jumps] NEGATIVE A/E 0.803 on 565 bets (broad NEGATIVE)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. import result for H37-closer-in-a-race-full-of-front-runners (strong finish last time): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

3. import result for H37-closer-in-a-race-full-of-front-runners (jumps): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

4. import result for H37-closer-in-a-race-full-of-front-runners (Flat): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

5. import result for H37-closer-in-a-race-full-of-front-runners (broad): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

6. New idea H37-closer-in-a-race-full-of-front-runners: H37: closer in a race full of front runners (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Promising.