H39: market has given up

Mechanism and rationale

NEGATIVE: beaten favourite last time, 10/1 or bigger today. The market has seen something.

The rule

last_was_favourite = 1 AND (last_position IS NULL OR last_position > 1) AND sp_decimal >= 11

Reads: last_was_favourite, last_position, sp_decimal

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Broad

last_was_favourite = 1 AND (last_position IS NULL OR last_position > 1) AND sp_decimal >= 11

Kind

all

Origin

research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl

Refinements

[
  {
    "name": "same class or lower",
    "rule": "(last_was_favourite = 1 AND (last_position IS NULL OR last_position > 1) AND sp_decimal >= 11) AND (race_class >= last_race_class)"
  },
  {
    "name": "within 30 days",
    "rule": "(last_was_favourite = 1 AND (last_position IS NULL OR last_position > 1) AND sp_decimal >= 11) AND (days_since_last_run <= 30)"
  }
]

Tier

N

Result (from the archive)

info within 30 days · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

5,760

A/E

0.87

winners vs the prices

SP return

-39.6%

level stakes

Betfair SP return

-16.9%

947 bets with a BSP

Strike rate 4.1%.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. H39-market-has-given-up Discovery → PROMISING import: tier N: a negative; best [within 30 days] NEGATIVE A/E 0.866 on 5760 bets (broad RED)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. import result for H39-market-has-given-up (within 30 days): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

3. import result for H39-market-has-given-up (same class or lower): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

4. import result for H39-market-has-given-up (broad): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

5. New idea H39-market-has-given-up: H39: market has given up (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Promising.