H41: out again under a penalty

Mechanism and rationale

Won last time and runs in a handicap within 7 days, before the handicapper can raise it properly.

The rule

last_position = 1 AND days_since_last_run <= 7 AND is_handicap = 1 AND last_is_handicap = 1

Reads: last_position, days_since_last_run, is_handicap, last_is_handicap

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Broad

last_position = 1 AND days_since_last_run <= 7 AND is_handicap = 1 AND last_is_handicap = 1

Kind

all

Origin

research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl

Refinements

none

Tier

C

Result (from the archive)

info broad · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

4,059

A/E

1.01

winners vs the prices

SP return

-10.9%

level stakes

Betfair SP return

-4.5%

664 bets with a BSP

Strike rate 28.7%.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. H41-out-again-under-a-penalty Discovery → KILLED import: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 1.01 on 4059 bets (broad RED)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. import result for H41-out-again-under-a-penalty (broad): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

3. New idea H41-out-again-under-a-penalty: H41: out again under a penalty (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.