Hypotheses · course · H44-specialists-at-very-sharp-tracks
H44: specialists at very sharp tracks
tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 1.016 on 1632 bets (broad RED)
Starts the thread “H44: specialists at very sharp tracks” 1 hypothesis
- Proposed
- Designed
- Discovery
- Promising
- Falsification
- Frozen
- Vault
- Provisional
- Shadow
- Validated
- Live
- Source
- Imported from the overnight batches
- Made by
- import
- Created
- 15 Oct, 23:10
- Tests logged
- 1
Mechanism and rationale
Two or more wins at a very sharp track (Chester, Fakenham, Cartmel...): these suit a type, and it is the type.
The rule
track_sharpness = 3 AND prior_course_wins >= 2
Reads: track_sharpness, prior_course_wins
Pre-registration
- Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)
- not designed yet
- Frozen
- not frozen
- The definition can still change.
- Broad
track_sharpness = 3 AND prior_course_wins >= 2
- Kind
all
- Origin
research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl
- Refinements
none
- Tier
C
Result (from the archive)
info broad · 15 Oct, 23:10
- Bets
- 1,632
- A/E
- 1.02
- winners vs the prices
- SP return
- -20.5%
- level stakes
- Betfair SP return
- -22.8%
- 344 bets with a BSP
Strike rate 15.8%.
By period
Falsification
No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.
Sealed holdout (vault)
Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.
Forward record
No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.
Lineage
No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.
Agent runs
No agent has worked on this yet.
Timeline
H44-specialists-at-very-sharp-tracks Discovery → KILLED import: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 1.016 on 1632 bets (broad RED)
· importer
import result for H44-specialists-at-very-sharp-tracks (broad): info
· importer
New idea H44-specialists-at-very-sharp-tracks: H44: specialists at very sharp tracks (import)
· importer
Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.