H48: yard good at dropping in trip

Mechanism and rationale

Down 20%+ in trip from a yard whose earlier runners dropping back beat the market by 30%+.

The rule

tx_down_trip_runs >= 20 AND tx_down_trip_wins >= 1.3 * tx_down_trip_exp

Reads: tx_down_trip_runs, tx_down_trip_wins, tx_down_trip_exp

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Broad

tx_down_trip_runs >= 20 AND tx_down_trip_wins >= 1.3 * tx_down_trip_exp

Kind

all

Origin

research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl

Refinements

[
  {
    "name": "handicap",
    "rule": "(tx_down_trip_runs >= 20 AND tx_down_trip_wins >= 1.3 * tx_down_trip_exp) AND (is_handicap = 1)"
  },
  {
    "name": "Flat",
    "rule": "(tx_down_trip_runs >= 20 AND tx_down_trip_wins >= 1.3 * tx_down_trip_exp) AND (race_type = 'Flat')"
  },
  {
    "name": "jumps",
    "rule": "(tx_down_trip_runs >= 20 AND tx_down_trip_wins >= 1.3 * tx_down_trip_exp) AND (race_type IN ('Hurdle', 'Chase'))"
  }
]

Tier

B

Result (from the archive)

info jumps · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

1,311

A/E

1.11

winners vs the prices

SP return

-15.0%

level stakes

Betfair SP return

-38.6%

222 bets with a BSP

Strike rate 12.0%.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. H48-yard-good-at-dropping-in-trip Discovery → PROMISING import: tier B: interesting, unproven; best [jumps] AMBER A/E 1.115 on 1311 bets (broad RED)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. import result for H48-yard-good-at-dropping-in-trip (jumps): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

3. import result for H48-yard-good-at-dropping-in-trip (Flat): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

4. import result for H48-yard-good-at-dropping-in-trip (handicap): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

5. import result for H48-yard-good-at-dropping-in-trip (broad): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

6. New idea H48-yard-good-at-dropping-in-trip: H48: yard good at dropping in trip (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Promising.