H49: jumps run into a flat race

Mechanism and rationale

Established Flat horse (5+ Flat runs) whose last run, within 45 days, was over jumps: fit, and the form line is disguised.

The rule

race_type = 'Flat' AND last_race_type IN ('Hurdle', 'Chase') AND days_since_last_run <= 45 AND flat_runs >= 5

Reads: race_type, last_race_type, days_since_last_run, flat_runs

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Broad

race_type = 'Flat' AND last_race_type IN ('Hurdle', 'Chase') AND days_since_last_run <= 45 AND flat_runs >= 5

Kind

all

Origin

research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl

Refinements

[
  {
    "name": "handicap",
    "rule": "(race_type = 'Flat' AND last_race_type IN ('Hurdle', 'Chase') AND days_since_last_run <= 45 AND flat_runs >= 5) AND (is_handicap = 1)"
  },
  {
    "name": "12 furlongs and further",
    "rule": "(race_type = 'Flat' AND last_race_type IN ('Hurdle', 'Chase') AND days_since_last_run <= 45 AND flat_runs >= 5) AND (distance_yards >= 2640)"
  },
  {
    "name": "14/1 or shorter",
    "rule": "(race_type = 'Flat' AND last_race_type IN ('Hurdle', 'Chase') AND days_since_last_run <= 45 AND flat_runs >= 5) AND (sp_decimal <= 15)"
  }
]

Tier

C

Result (from the archive)

info 14/1 or shorter · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

1,555

A/E

1.04

winners vs the prices

SP return

-12.3%

level stakes

Betfair SP return

-20.4%

274 bets with a BSP

Strike rate 13.5%.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. H49-jumps-run-into-a-flat-race Discovery → KILLED import: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] AMBER A/E 1.089 on 3246 bets (broad AMBER)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. import result for H49-jumps-run-into-a-flat-race (14/1 or shorter): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

3. import result for H49-jumps-run-into-a-flat-race (12 furlongs and further): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

4. import result for H49-jumps-run-into-a-flat-race (handicap): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

5. import result for H49-jumps-run-into-a-flat-race (broad): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

6. New idea H49-jumps-run-into-a-flat-race: H49: jumps run into a flat race (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.