H51: closer from a sharp track to a long straight

Mechanism and rationale

Held up and beaten at a sharp track last time; today a Flat track with a straight of 4 furlongs or more to use.

The rule

race_type = 'Flat' AND last_run_style = 'held_up' AND last_track_sharpness >= 2 AND track_straight_furlongs >= 4 AND (last_position IS NULL OR last_position > 1)

Reads: race_type, last_run_style, last_track_sharpness, track_straight_furlongs, last_position

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Broad

race_type = 'Flat' AND last_run_style = 'held_up' AND last_track_sharpness >= 2 AND track_straight_furlongs >= 4 AND (last_position IS NULL OR last_position > 1)

Kind

remarks

Origin

research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl

Refinements

[
  {
    "name": "stayed on last time",
    "rule": "(race_type = 'Flat' AND last_run_style = 'held_up' AND last_track_sharpness >= 2 AND track_straight_furlongs >= 4 AND (last_position IS NULL OR last_position > 1)) AND (last_strong_finish = 1 OR last_one_paced = 1)"
  },
  {
    "name": "handicap",
    "rule": "(race_type = 'Flat' AND last_run_style = 'held_up' AND last_track_sharpness >= 2 AND track_straight_furlongs >= 4 AND (last_position IS NULL OR last_position > 1)) AND (is_handicap = 1)"
  }
]

Tier

C

Result (from the archive)

info handicap · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

1,077

A/E

1.09

winners vs the prices

SP return

-3.1%

level stakes

Betfair SP return

+31.2%

1,075 bets with a BSP

Strike rate 10.4%.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. H51-closer-from-a-sharp-track-to-a-long-straight Discovery → KILLED import: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [handicap] AMBER A/E 1.086 on 1077 bets (broad AMBER)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. import result for H51-closer-from-a-sharp-track-to-a-long-straight (handicap): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

3. import result for H51-closer-from-a-sharp-track-to-a-long-straight (stayed on last time): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

4. import result for H51-closer-from-a-sharp-track-to-a-long-straight (broad): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

5. New idea H51-closer-from-a-sharp-track-to-a-long-straight: H51: closer from a sharp track to a long straight (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.