Hypotheses · course · H55-hereford-fresh-on-quick-ground

H55: hereford fresh on quick ground

KILLEDamberFailed a test or its forward record. Kept: failures are knowledge.

tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] AMBER A/E 1.704 on 89 bets (broad AMBER)

Starts the thread “H55: hereford fresh on quick ground” 1 hypothesis

Proposed
Designed
Discovery
Promising
Falsification
Frozen
Vault
Provisional
Shadow
Validated
Live

Source: Imported from the overnight batches
Made by: import
Created: 15 Oct, 23:10
Tests logged: 1

Mechanism and rationale

Hereford, good or faster: horses back from 150-249 days off at under 13/2 (the rule frozen on 2026-10-12).

The rule

course = 'HEREFORD' AND going_group IN ('good', 'good_to_firm', 'firm') AND days_since_last_run BETWEEN 150 AND 249 AND sp_decimal < 7.5 AND race_type IN ('Hurdle', 'Chase')

Reads: course, going_group, days_since_last_run, sp_decimal, race_type

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec): not designed yet
Frozen: not frozen; The definition can still change.

Broad: course = 'HEREFORD' AND going_group IN ('good', 'good_to_firm', 'firm') AND days_since_last_run BETWEEN 150 AND 249 AND sp_decimal < 7.5 AND race_type IN ('Hurdle', 'Chase')
Kind: all
Origin: research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl
Refinements: none
Tier: C

Result (from the archive)

info broad · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets: 89
A/E: 1.70; winners vs the prices
SP return: +59.5%; level stakes
Betfair SP return: –; 17 bets with a BSP

0.80dashed line 1.00 · no interval recorded1.75

Strike rate 41.6%.

By period

betsA/E0.71.01.3

2020-2228–

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

H55-hereford-fresh-on-quick-ground Discovery → KILLED import: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] AMBER A/E 1.704 on 89 bets (broad AMBER)
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer
import result for H55-hereford-fresh-on-quick-ground (broad): info
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer
New idea H55-hereford-fresh-on-quick-ground: H55: hereford fresh on quick ground (import)
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.