H56: older horse new to fences

Mechanism and rationale

NEGATIVE: aged 8 or more with 3 or fewer chases, in a novice or beginners' chase. Backed for experience it does not have over fences.

The rule

race_type = 'Chase' AND (is_novice = 1 OR is_maiden = 1 OR race_name LIKE '%Beginners%') AND age >= 8 AND chase_runs <= 3

Reads: race_type, is_novice, is_maiden, race_name, age, chase_runs

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Broad

race_type = 'Chase' AND (is_novice = 1 OR is_maiden = 1 OR race_name LIKE '%Beginners%') AND age >= 8 AND chase_runs <= 3

Kind

all

Origin

research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl

Refinements

[
  {
    "name": "the oldest hurdle campaigners (10+ hurdle runs)",
    "rule": "(race_type = 'Chase' AND (is_novice = 1 OR is_maiden = 1 OR race_name LIKE '%Beginners%') AND age >= 8 AND chase_runs <= 3) AND (hurdle_runs >= 10)"
  },
  {
    "name": "priced under 13/2",
    "rule": "(race_type = 'Chase' AND (is_novice = 1 OR is_maiden = 1 OR race_name LIKE '%Beginners%') AND age >= 8 AND chase_runs <= 3) AND (sp_decimal < 7.5)"
  }
]

Tier

C

Result (from the archive)

info priced under 13/2 · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

1,499

A/E

0.97

winners vs the prices

SP return

-13.5%

level stakes

Betfair SP return

+21.9%

147 bets with a BSP

Strike rate 24.0%.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. H56-older-horse-new-to-fences Discovery → KILLED import: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [priced under 13/2] RED A/E 0.972 on 1499 bets (broad RED)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. import result for H56-older-horse-new-to-fences (priced under 13/2): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

3. import result for H56-older-horse-new-to-fences (the oldest hurdle campaigners (10+ hurdle runs)): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

4. import result for H56-older-horse-new-to-fences (broad): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

5. New idea H56-older-horse-new-to-fences: H56: older horse new to fences (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.