H58: lone front runner at a sharp track

Mechanism and rationale

The only runner that led last time, at a sharp track where the lead is hard to take back.

The rule

last_run_style = 'led' AND n_led_last = 1 AND n_styled_last >= 6 AND track_sharpness >= 2

Reads: last_run_style, n_led_last, n_styled_last, track_sharpness

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Broad

last_run_style = 'led' AND n_led_last = 1 AND n_styled_last >= 6 AND track_sharpness >= 2

Kind

remarks

Origin

research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl

Refinements

[
  {
    "name": "Flat",
    "rule": "(last_run_style = 'led' AND n_led_last = 1 AND n_styled_last >= 6 AND track_sharpness >= 2) AND (race_type = 'Flat')"
  },
  {
    "name": "jumps",
    "rule": "(last_run_style = 'led' AND n_led_last = 1 AND n_styled_last >= 6 AND track_sharpness >= 2) AND (race_type IN ('Hurdle', 'Chase'))"
  },
  {
    "name": "no other front-end runner either",
    "rule": "(last_run_style = 'led' AND n_led_last = 1 AND n_styled_last >= 6 AND track_sharpness >= 2) AND (n_front_last <= 2)"
  }
]

Tier

C

Result (from the archive)

info no other front-end runner either · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

236

A/E

1.01

winners vs the prices

SP return

-18.8%

level stakes

Betfair SP return

-6.4%

235 bets with a BSP

Strike rate 14.8%.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. H58-lone-front-runner-at-a-sharp-track Discovery → KILLED import: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [no other front-end runner either] RED A/E 1.006 on 236 bets (broad RED)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. import result for H58-lone-front-runner-at-a-sharp-track (no other front-end runner either): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

3. import result for H58-lone-front-runner-at-a-sharp-track (jumps): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

4. import result for H58-lone-front-runner-at-a-sharp-track (Flat): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

5. import result for H58-lone-front-runner-at-a-sharp-track (broad): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

6. New idea H58-lone-front-runner-at-a-sharp-track: H58: lone front runner at a sharp track (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.