H63: course likes first visit

Mechanism and rationale

First run at the course at a course where such runners have beaten the market by 25%+ before. The mirror: tracks with nothing to learn.

The rule

cp_first_visit_runs >= 60 AND cp_first_visit_wins >= 1.25 * cp_first_visit_exp

Reads: cp_first_visit_runs, cp_first_visit_wins, cp_first_visit_exp

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Broad

cp_first_visit_runs >= 60 AND cp_first_visit_wins >= 1.25 * cp_first_visit_exp

Kind

all

Origin

research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl

Refinements

[
  {
    "name": "100+ earlier runners",
    "rule": "(cp_first_visit_runs >= 60 AND cp_first_visit_wins >= 1.25 * cp_first_visit_exp) AND (cp_first_visit_runs >= 100)"
  },
  {
    "name": "jumps",
    "rule": "(cp_first_visit_runs >= 60 AND cp_first_visit_wins >= 1.25 * cp_first_visit_exp) AND (race_type IN ('Hurdle', 'Chase'))"
  },
  {
    "name": "Flat",
    "rule": "(cp_first_visit_runs >= 60 AND cp_first_visit_wins >= 1.25 * cp_first_visit_exp) AND (race_type = 'Flat')"
  }
]

Tier

C

Result (from the archive)

info Flat · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

890

A/E

0.98

winners vs the prices

SP return

-18.9%

level stakes

Betfair SP return

–

0 bets with a BSP

Strike rate 8.8%.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. H63-course-likes-first-visit Discovery → KILLED import: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [Flat] RED A/E 0.977 on 890 bets (broad RED)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. import result for H63-course-likes-first-visit (Flat): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

3. import result for H63-course-likes-first-visit (jumps): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

4. import result for H63-course-likes-first-visit (100+ earlier runners): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

5. import result for H63-course-likes-first-visit (broad): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

6. New idea H63-course-likes-first-visit: H63: course likes first visit (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.