H70: course likes held up last

Mechanism and rationale

Held up last time out at a course where such runners have beaten the market by 25%+ before. Tracks that favour closers (last year only).

The rule

cp_held_up_last_runs >= 60 AND cp_held_up_last_wins >= 1.25 * cp_held_up_last_exp

Reads: cp_held_up_last_runs, cp_held_up_last_wins, cp_held_up_last_exp

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Broad

cp_held_up_last_runs >= 60 AND cp_held_up_last_wins >= 1.25 * cp_held_up_last_exp

Kind

all

Origin

research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl

Refinements

[
  {
    "name": "100+ earlier runners",
    "rule": "(cp_held_up_last_runs >= 60 AND cp_held_up_last_wins >= 1.25 * cp_held_up_last_exp) AND (cp_held_up_last_runs >= 100)"
  },
  {
    "name": "jumps",
    "rule": "(cp_held_up_last_runs >= 60 AND cp_held_up_last_wins >= 1.25 * cp_held_up_last_exp) AND (race_type IN ('Hurdle', 'Chase'))"
  },
  {
    "name": "Flat",
    "rule": "(cp_held_up_last_runs >= 60 AND cp_held_up_last_wins >= 1.25 * cp_held_up_last_exp) AND (race_type = 'Flat')"
  }
]

Tier

C

Result (from the archive)

info Flat · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

587

A/E

1.07

winners vs the prices

SP return

-20.1%

level stakes

Betfair SP return

+11.3%

560 bets with a BSP

Strike rate 10.1%.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. H70-course-likes-held-up-last Discovery → KILLED import: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [Flat] AMBER A/E 1.068 on 587 bets (broad RED)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. import result for H70-course-likes-held-up-last (Flat): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

3. import result for H70-course-likes-held-up-last (jumps): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

4. import result for H70-course-likes-held-up-last (100+ earlier runners): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

5. import result for H70-course-likes-held-up-last (broad): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

6. New idea H70-course-likes-held-up-last: H70: course likes held up last (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.