H79: jockey beats the market at this course

Mechanism and rationale

The jockey's earlier rides at this course beat the market by 30%+ (40+ rides): rides the track better than most.

The rule

jc_runs >= 40 AND jc_wins >= 1.3 * jc_exp

Reads: jc_runs, jc_wins, jc_exp

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Broad

jc_runs >= 40 AND jc_wins >= 1.3 * jc_exp

Kind

all

Origin

research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl

Refinements

none

Tier

C

Result (from the archive)

info broad · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

50,494

A/E

1.00

winners vs the prices

SP return

-24.4%

level stakes

Betfair SP return

-1.0%

8,561 bets with a BSP

Strike rate 11.4%.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. H79-jockey-beats-the-market-at-this-course Discovery → KILLED import: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 0.999 on 50494 bets (broad RED)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. import result for H79-jockey-beats-the-market-at-this-course (broad): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

3. New idea H79-jockey-beats-the-market-at-this-course: H79: jockey beats the market at this course (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.