Hypotheses · course · H80-trainer-and-jockey-both-good-at-the-course
H80: trainer and jockey both good at the course
tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 1.015 on 31847 bets (broad RED)
Starts the thread “H80: trainer and jockey both good at the course” 1 hypothesis
- Proposed
- Designed
- Discovery
- Promising
- Falsification
- Frozen
- Vault
- Provisional
- Shadow
- Validated
- Live
- Source
- Imported from the overnight batches
- Made by
- import
- Created
- 15 Oct, 23:10
- Tests logged
- 1
Mechanism and rationale
Both the trainer (25+ runners) and the jockey (40+ rides) have beaten the market here by 15%+.
The rule
tc_runs >= 25 AND tc_wins >= 1.15 * tc_exp AND jc_runs >= 40 AND jc_wins >= 1.15 * jc_exp
Reads: tc_runs, tc_wins, tc_exp, jc_runs, jc_wins, jc_exp
Pre-registration
- Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)
- not designed yet
- Frozen
- not frozen
- The definition can still change.
- Broad
tc_runs >= 25 AND tc_wins >= 1.15 * tc_exp AND jc_runs >= 40 AND jc_wins >= 1.15 * jc_exp
- Kind
all
- Origin
research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl
- Refinements
none
- Tier
C
Result (from the archive)
info broad · 15 Oct, 23:10
- Bets
- 31,847
- A/E
- 1.01
- winners vs the prices
- SP return
- -22.2%
- level stakes
- Betfair SP return
- +7.3%
- 6,285 bets with a BSP
Strike rate 13.9%.
By period
Falsification
No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.
Sealed holdout (vault)
Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.
Forward record
No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.
Lineage
No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.
Agent runs
No agent has worked on this yet.
Timeline
H80-trainer-and-jockey-both-good-at-the-course Discovery → KILLED import: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 1.015 on 31847 bets (broad RED)
· importer
import result for H80-trainer-and-jockey-both-good-at-the-course (broad): info
· importer
New idea H80-trainer-and-jockey-both-good-at-the-course: H80: trainer and jockey both good at the course (import)
· importer
Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.