Hypotheses · course · H81-back-at-the-course-of-its-last-win

H81: back at the course of its last win

KILLEDredFailed a test or its forward record. Kept: failures are knowledge.

tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 0.972 on 31455 bets (broad RED)

Starts the thread “H81: back at the course of its last win” 1 hypothesis

Proposed
Designed
Discovery
Promising
Falsification
Frozen
Vault
Provisional
Shadow
Validated
Live

Source: Imported from the overnight batches
Made by: import
Created: 15 Oct, 23:10
Tests logged: 1

Mechanism and rationale

Beaten elsewhere last time; today back at the course where it last won.

The rule

last_win_course = course_id AND last_course_id != course_id AND (last_position IS NULL OR last_position > 1)

Reads: last_win_course, course_id, last_course_id, last_position

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec): not designed yet
Frozen: not frozen; The definition can still change.

Broad: last_win_course = course_id AND last_course_id != course_id AND (last_position IS NULL OR last_position > 1)
Kind: all
Origin: research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl
Refinements: none
Tier: C

Result (from the archive)

info broad · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets: 31,455
A/E: 0.97; winners vs the prices
SP return: -22.2%; level stakes
Betfair SP return: -9.9%; 6,097 bets with a BSP

0.80dashed line 1.00 · no interval recorded1.20

Strike rate 12.1%.

By period

betsA/E0.71.01.3

2020-229,7131.00

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

H81-back-at-the-course-of-its-last-win Discovery → KILLED import: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 0.972 on 31455 bets (broad RED)
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer
import result for H81-back-at-the-course-of-its-last-win (broad): info
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer
New idea H81-back-at-the-course-of-its-last-win: H81: back at the course of its last win (import)
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.