H92: irish yard raiding britain

Mechanism and rationale

A yard that has run nine in ten of its horses in Ireland sends one to Britain. They do not travel for nothing.

The rule

region = 'GB' AND t_ire_runs >= 50 AND t_ire_runs >= 9 * t_gb_runs

Reads: region, t_ire_runs, t_gb_runs

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Broad

region = 'GB' AND t_ire_runs >= 50 AND t_ire_runs >= 9 * t_gb_runs

Kind

all

Origin

research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl

Refinements

none

Tier

C

Result (from the archive)

info broad · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

5,261

A/E

1.00

winners vs the prices

SP return

-18.6%

level stakes

Betfair SP return

-6.8%

841 bets with a BSP

Strike rate 11.5%.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. H92-irish-yard-raiding-britain Discovery → KILLED import: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 1.002 on 5261 bets (broad RED)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. import result for H92-irish-yard-raiding-britain (broad): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

3. New idea H92-irish-yard-raiding-britain: H92: irish yard raiding britain (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.