H93: british yard raiding ireland

Mechanism and rationale

The reverse: a British yard sending one to Ireland.

The rule

region = 'IRE' AND t_gb_runs >= 50 AND t_gb_runs >= 9 * t_ire_runs

Reads: region, t_gb_runs, t_ire_runs

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Broad

region = 'IRE' AND t_gb_runs >= 50 AND t_gb_runs >= 9 * t_ire_runs

Kind

all

Origin

research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl

Refinements

[
  {
    "name": "handicap",
    "rule": "(region = 'IRE' AND t_gb_runs >= 50 AND t_gb_runs >= 9 * t_ire_runs) AND (is_handicap = 1)"
  },
  {
    "name": "jumps",
    "rule": "(region = 'IRE' AND t_gb_runs >= 50 AND t_gb_runs >= 9 * t_ire_runs) AND (race_type IN ('Hurdle', 'Chase'))"
  },
  {
    "name": "Flat",
    "rule": "(region = 'IRE' AND t_gb_runs >= 50 AND t_gb_runs >= 9 * t_ire_runs) AND (race_type = 'Flat')"
  }
]

Tier

B

Result (from the archive)

info Flat · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

676

A/E

1.11

winners vs the prices

SP return

-13.9%

level stakes

Betfair SP return

-34.1%

146 bets with a BSP

Strike rate 13.9%.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. H93-british-yard-raiding-ireland Discovery → PROMISING import: tier B: interesting, unproven; best [Flat] AMBER A/E 1.109 on 676 bets (broad AMBER)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. import result for H93-british-yard-raiding-ireland (Flat): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

3. import result for H93-british-yard-raiding-ireland (jumps): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

4. import result for H93-british-yard-raiding-ireland (handicap): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

5. import result for H93-british-yard-raiding-ireland (broad): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

6. New idea H93-british-yard-raiding-ireland: H93: british yard raiding ireland (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Promising.