Hypotheses · market · H94-beaten-at-odds-on
H94: beaten at odds on
tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 1.002 on 5009 bets (broad RED)
Starts the thread “H94: beaten at odds on” 1 hypothesis
- Proposed
- Designed
- Discovery
- Promising
- Falsification
- Frozen
- Vault
- Provisional
- Shadow
- Validated
- Live
- Source
- Imported from the overnight batches
- Made by
- import
- Created
- 15 Oct, 23:10
- Tests logged
- 1
Mechanism and rationale
Beaten at odds-on last time: the market was sure, and one defeat should not change the horse.
The rule
last_sp_decimal < 2 AND (last_position IS NULL OR last_position > 1)
Reads: last_sp_decimal, last_position
Pre-registration
- Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)
- not designed yet
- Frozen
- not frozen
- The definition can still change.
- Broad
last_sp_decimal < 2 AND (last_position IS NULL OR last_position > 1)
- Kind
all
- Origin
research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl
- Refinements
none
- Tier
C
Result (from the archive)
info broad · 15 Oct, 23:10
- Bets
- 5,009
- A/E
- 1.00
- winners vs the prices
- SP return
- -16.0%
- level stakes
- Betfair SP return
- +17.1%
- 912 bets with a BSP
Strike rate 25.0%.
By period
Falsification
No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.
Sealed holdout (vault)
Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.
Forward record
No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.
Lineage
No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.
Agent runs
No agent has worked on this yet.
Timeline
H94-beaten-at-odds-on Discovery → KILLED import: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 1.002 on 5009 bets (broad RED)
· importer
import result for H94-beaten-at-odds-on (broad): info
· importer
New idea H94-beaten-at-odds-on: H94: beaten at odds on (import)
· importer
Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.