H95: from a big field to a small one

Mechanism and rationale

Mid-division in a field of 14+ last time, in a field of 7 or fewer today: a simpler race.

The rule

last_field_size >= 14 AND field_size <= 7 AND last_position BETWEEN 4 AND 8

Reads: last_field_size, field_size, last_position

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Broad

last_field_size >= 14 AND field_size <= 7 AND last_position BETWEEN 4 AND 8

Kind

all

Origin

research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl

Refinements

[
  {
    "name": "handicap",
    "rule": "(last_field_size >= 14 AND field_size <= 7 AND last_position BETWEEN 4 AND 8) AND (is_handicap = 1)"
  },
  {
    "name": "jumps",
    "rule": "(last_field_size >= 14 AND field_size <= 7 AND last_position BETWEEN 4 AND 8) AND (race_type IN ('Hurdle', 'Chase'))"
  },
  {
    "name": "Flat",
    "rule": "(last_field_size >= 14 AND field_size <= 7 AND last_position BETWEEN 4 AND 8) AND (race_type = 'Flat')"
  }
]

Tier

N

Result (from the archive)

info Flat · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

2,427

A/E

0.91

winners vs the prices

SP return

-23.6%

level stakes

Betfair SP return

-15.3%

382 bets with a BSP

Strike rate 16.6%.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. H95-from-a-big-field-to-a-small-one Discovery → PROMISING import: tier N: a negative; best [Flat] NEGATIVE A/E 0.913 on 2427 bets (broad NEGATIVE)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. import result for H95-from-a-big-field-to-a-small-one (Flat): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

3. import result for H95-from-a-big-field-to-a-small-one (jumps): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

4. import result for H95-from-a-big-field-to-a-small-one (handicap): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

5. import result for H95-from-a-big-field-to-a-small-one (broad): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

6. New idea H95-from-a-big-field-to-a-small-one: H95: from a big field to a small one (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Promising.