Hypotheses · harry-dan · HS1-harry-on-dan
HS1: harry on dan
best [broad] RED A/E 0.975 on 3077 bets
Starts the thread “HS1: harry on dan” 1 hypothesis
- Proposed
- Designed
- Discovery
- Promising
- Falsification
- Frozen
- Vault
- Provisional
- Shadow
- Validated
- Live
- Source
- Imported from the RaceiQ study
- Made by
- import
- Created
- 15 Oct, 23:10
- Tests logged
- 1
Mechanism and rationale
CONTROL: Harry Skelton on a Dan Skelton runner, chase or hurdle.
The rule
jockey = 'Harry Skelton' AND trainer = 'Dan Skelton' AND race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle')Reads: jockey, trainer, race_type
Pre-registration
- Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)
- not designed yet
- Frozen
- not frozen
- The definition can still change.
- Broad
jockey = 'Harry Skelton' AND trainer = 'Dan Skelton' AND race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle')
- Kind
history
- Origin
research/experiments/raceiq/results.jsonl
- Refinements
none
Result (from the archive)
info broad · 15 Oct, 23:10
- Bets
- 3,077
- A/E
- 0.97
- winners vs the prices
- SP return
- -15.9%
- level stakes
- Betfair SP return
- +6.4%
- 609 bets with a BSP
Strike rate 22.5%.
By period
Falsification
No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.
Sealed holdout (vault)
Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.
Forward record
No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.
Lineage
No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.
Agent runs
No agent has worked on this yet.
Timeline
HS1-harry-on-dan Discovery → KILLED import: best [broad] RED A/E 0.975 on 3077 bets
· importer
import result for HS1-harry-on-dan (broad): info
· importer
New idea HS1-harry-on-dan: HS1: harry on dan (import)
· importer
Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.