IQ04: slow to recover despite losing little speed

Mechanism and rationale

NEGATIVE: last run among the quarter that lost least speed at the obstacles but among the slowest quarter to recover. Looks a clean jumper, lacks rhythm.

The rule

race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND l_speed_lost_pct >= 0.75 AND l_recovery_time_pct >= 0.75

Reads: race_type, l_speed_lost_pct, l_recovery_time_pct

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Broad

race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND l_speed_lost_pct >= 0.75 AND l_recovery_time_pct >= 0.75

Kind

remarks

Origin

research/experiments/raceiq/results.jsonl

Refinements

[
  {
    "name": "chase today",
    "rule": "(race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND l_speed_lost_pct >= 0.75 AND l_recovery_time_pct >= 0.75) AND (race_type = 'Chase')"
  },
  {
    "name": "last run in today's code",
    "rule": "(race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND l_speed_lost_pct >= 0.75 AND l_recovery_time_pct >= 0.75) AND (l_same_code = 1)"
  },
  {
    "name": "handicap",
    "rule": "(race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND l_speed_lost_pct >= 0.75 AND l_recovery_time_pct >= 0.75) AND (is_handicap = 1)"
  },
  {
    "name": "14/1 or shorter",
    "rule": "(race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND l_speed_lost_pct >= 0.75 AND l_recovery_time_pct >= 0.75) AND (sp_decimal <= 15)"
  }
]

Result (from the archive)

info 14/1 or shorter · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

437

A/E

0.93

winners vs the prices

SP return

-34.3%

level stakes

Betfair SP return

-23.6%

435 bets with a BSP

Strike rate 12.4%.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. IQ04-slow-to-recover-despite-losing-little-speed Discovery → PROMISING import: best [broad] NEGATIVE A/E 0.933 on 899 bets

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. import result for IQ04-slow-to-recover-despite-losing-little-speed (14/1 or shorter): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

3. import result for IQ04-slow-to-recover-despite-losing-little-speed (handicap): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

4. import result for IQ04-slow-to-recover-despite-losing-little-speed (last run in today's code): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

5. import result for IQ04-slow-to-recover-despite-losing-little-speed (chase today): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

6. import result for IQ04-slow-to-recover-despite-losing-little-speed (broad): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

7. New idea IQ04-slow-to-recover-despite-losing-little-speed: IQ04: slow to recover despite losing little speed (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Promising.