Hypotheses · first-3m · IQ110-second-try-at-3m-after-not-finishing-the-first
IQ110: second try at 3m after not finishing the first
best [broad] GREEN A/E 1.201 on 868 bets
Starts the thread “IQ110: second try at 3m after not finishing the first” 1 hypothesis
- Proposed
- Designed
- Discovery
- Promising
- Falsification
- Frozen
- Vault
- Provisional
- Shadow
- Validated
- Live
- Source
- Imported from the RaceiQ study
- Made by
- import
- Created
- 15 Oct, 23:10
- Tests logged
- 1
Mechanism and rationale
Second chase at 3m+, having failed to finish the first. The market has one run to go on and it says the horse does not stay.
The rule
race_type = 'Chase' AND distance_yards >= 5280 AND f3_kind IS NOT NULL AND (f3_pulled_up = 1 OR f3_fell = 1)
Reads: race_type, distance_yards, f3_kind, f3_pulled_up, f3_fell
Pre-registration
- Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)
- not designed yet
- Frozen
- not frozen
- The definition can still change.
- Broad
race_type = 'Chase' AND distance_yards >= 5280 AND f3_kind IS NOT NULL AND (f3_pulled_up = 1 OR f3_fell = 1)
- Kind
all
- Origin
research/experiments/raceiq/results.jsonl
- Refinements
none
Result (from the archive)
info broad · 15 Oct, 23:10
- Bets
- 868
- A/E
- 1.20
- winners vs the prices
- SP return
- -2.7%
- level stakes
- Betfair SP return
- +102.2%
- 106 bets with a BSP
Strike rate 11.2%.
By period
Falsification
No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.
Sealed holdout (vault)
Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.
Forward record
No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.
Lineage
No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.
Agent runs
No agent has worked on this yet.
Timeline
IQ110-second-try-at-3m-after-not-finishing-the-first Discovery → PROMISING import: best [broad] GREEN A/E 1.201 on 868 bets
· importer
import result for IQ110-second-try-at-3m-after-not-finishing-the-first (broad): info
· importer
New idea IQ110-second-try-at-3m-after-not-finishing-the-first: IQ110: second try at 3m after not finishing the first (import)
· importer
Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Promising.