IQ112: second try at 3m after a visible failure

Mechanism and rationale

Second chase at 3m+ after a first that visibly failed: pulled up, beaten 15 lengths or more, or in the back half having lost two or more places late.

The rule

race_type = 'Chase' AND distance_yards >= 5280 AND f3_kind IS NOT NULL AND f3_failed = 1

Reads: race_type, distance_yards, f3_kind, f3_failed

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Broad

race_type = 'Chase' AND distance_yards >= 5280 AND f3_kind IS NOT NULL AND f3_failed = 1

Kind

remarks

Origin

research/experiments/raceiq/results.jsonl

Refinements

none

Result (from the archive)

info broad · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

172

A/E

0.80

winners vs the prices

SP return

-53.8%

level stakes

Betfair SP return

-41.9%

172 bets with a BSP

Strike rate 8.7%.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. IQ112-second-try-at-3m-after-a-visible-failure Discovery → KILLED import: best [broad] RED A/E 0.799 on 172 bets

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. import result for IQ112-second-try-at-3m-after-a-visible-failure (broad): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

3. New idea IQ112-second-try-at-3m-after-a-visible-failure: IQ112: second try at 3m after a visible failure (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.