IQ12: made up places mid race while losing ground jumping

Mechanism and rationale

Last run: made up two or more places through the middle third while among the quarter losing most ground at the obstacles. It had the engine to move through a field in spite of its jumping.

The rule

race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND l_gained_mid >= 2 AND l_lgj_pct <= 0.25

Reads: race_type, l_gained_mid, l_lgj_pct

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Broad

race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND l_gained_mid >= 2 AND l_lgj_pct <= 0.25

Kind

remarks

Origin

research/experiments/raceiq/results.jsonl

Refinements

[
  {
    "name": "chase today",
    "rule": "(race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND l_gained_mid >= 2 AND l_lgj_pct <= 0.25) AND (race_type = 'Chase')"
  },
  {
    "name": "last run in today's code",
    "rule": "(race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND l_gained_mid >= 2 AND l_lgj_pct <= 0.25) AND (l_same_code = 1)"
  },
  {
    "name": "handicap",
    "rule": "(race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND l_gained_mid >= 2 AND l_lgj_pct <= 0.25) AND (is_handicap = 1)"
  },
  {
    "name": "14/1 or shorter",
    "rule": "(race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND l_gained_mid >= 2 AND l_lgj_pct <= 0.25) AND (sp_decimal <= 15)"
  }
]

Result (from the archive)

info 14/1 or shorter · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

298

A/E

0.96

winners vs the prices

SP return

-12.2%

level stakes

Betfair SP return

+10.0%

298 bets with a BSP

Strike rate 11.7%.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. IQ12-made-up-places-mid-race-while-losing-ground-jumping Discovery → PROMISING import: best [chase today] GREEN A/E 1.256 on 179 bets

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. import result for IQ12-made-up-places-mid-race-while-losing-ground-jumping (14/1 or shorter): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

3. import result for IQ12-made-up-places-mid-race-while-losing-ground-jumping (handicap): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

4. import result for IQ12-made-up-places-mid-race-while-losing-ground-jumping (last run in today's code): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

5. import result for IQ12-made-up-places-mid-race-while-losing-ground-jumping (chase today): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

6. import result for IQ12-made-up-places-mid-race-while-losing-ground-jumping (broad): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

7. New idea IQ12-made-up-places-mid-race-while-losing-ground-jumping: IQ12: made up places mid race while losing ground jumping (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Promising.