Hypotheses · first-3m · IQ122-failed-first-3m-try-mixed

IQ122: failed first 3m try mixed

KILLEDredFailed a test or its forward record. Kept: failures are knowledge.

best [broad] RED A/E 0.769 on 62 bets

Starts the thread “IQ122: failed first 3m try mixed” 1 hypothesis

Proposed
Designed
Discovery
Promising
Falsification
Frozen
Vault
Provisional
Shadow
Validated
Live

Source: Imported from the RaceiQ study
Made by: import
Created: 15 Oct, 23:10
Tests logged: 1

Mechanism and rationale

LOOK ONLY: second chase at 3m+ after a first that failed, front-loaded race or up with the pace but not both.

The rule

race_type = 'Chase' AND distance_yards >= 5280 AND f3_failed = 1 AND f3_tilt IS NOT NULL AND ((f3_tilt > 0) != (((f3_gap IS NOT NULL AND f3_gap <= 0.77) OR (f3_gap IS NULL AND f3_style IN ('led', 'prominent')))))

Reads: race_type, distance_yards, f3_failed, f3_tilt, f3_gap, f3_style

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec): not designed yet
Frozen: not frozen; The definition can still change.

Broad: race_type = 'Chase' AND distance_yards >= 5280 AND f3_failed = 1 AND f3_tilt IS NOT NULL AND ((f3_tilt > 0) != (((f3_gap IS NOT NULL AND f3_gap <= 0.77) OR (f3_gap IS NULL AND f3_style IN ('led', 'prominent')))))
Kind: remarks
Origin: research/experiments/raceiq/results.jsonl
Refinements: none

Result (from the archive)

info broad · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets: 62
A/E: 0.77; winners vs the prices
SP return: -67.3%; level stakes
Betfair SP return: -62.2%; 62 bets with a BSP

0.72dashed line 1.00 · no interval recorded1.20

Strike rate 8.1%.

By period

betsA/E0.71.01.3

Earlier half431.15

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

IQ122-failed-first-3m-try-mixed Discovery → KILLED import: best [broad] RED A/E 0.769 on 62 bets
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer
import result for IQ122-failed-first-3m-try-mixed (broad): info
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer
New idea IQ122-failed-first-3m-try-mixed: IQ122: failed first 3m try mixed (import)
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.