IQ130: derham development

Mechanism and rationale

A: Harry Derham, hurdle start 2-4, technique below the median last time, predicted uplift above the median.

The rule

dv_now IS NOT NULL AND dv_hyp_a = 1

Reads: dv_now, dv_hyp_a

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

866541983b1cea753ea5900eaa55626fbd7ce6696bc3955e5e26e3e4c8534c24

Frozen

14 Oct, 01:00

Nothing in the definition can change after this.

Broad

dv_now IS NOT NULL AND dv_hyp_a = 1

Holdout

{
  "direction": "positive",
  "frozen_in": "research/experiments/raceiq/iq_batch_10",
  "frozen_on": "2026-10-14",
  "id": "IQ130-derham-development",
  "rule": "dv_now IS NOT NULL AND dv_hyp_a = 1"
}

Kind

remarks

Origin

research/experiments/raceiq/results.jsonl

Refinements

none

Result (from the archive)

info discovery year (reference) · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

30

A/E

1.45

winners vs the prices

SP return

-14.4%

level stakes

Betfair SP return

+14.7%

30 bets with a BSP

Strike rate 23.3%.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Bets

36

14 Oct, 13:00

A/E

0.49

p = 0.94

BH threshold then

0.0034

over every vault test so far

Outcome

Failed

from the archive

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. IQ130-derham-development Vault → KILLEDfailed the vault import: holdout CONTRADICTED: A/E 0.488 on 36 (GB 0.488, IRE None), p 0.9443 against BH 0.003448 over 29 tests

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. IQ130-derham-development Frozen → FROZENvault import: vault

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

3. IQ130-derham-development Falsification → FROZEN import: frozen

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

4. import result for IQ130-derham-development (discovery year (reference)): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

5. import result for IQ130-derham-development (Ireland): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

6. import result for IQ130-derham-development (Britain): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

7. import result for IQ130-derham-development (HOLDOUT 2023-25, all): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

8. import result for IQ130-derham-development (broad): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

9. New idea IQ130-derham-development: IQ130: derham development (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Failed the vault.