Hypotheses · overlay · IQ142b-hurdle-prep-yes

IQ142b: hurdle prep yes

KILLEDamberFailed a test or its forward record. Kept: failures are knowledge.

best [broad] AMBER A/E 1.248 on 52 bets

Starts the thread “IQ142b: hurdle prep yes” 1 hypothesis

Proposed
Designed
Discovery
Promising
Falsification
Frozen
Vault
Provisional
Shadow
Validated
Live

Source: Imported from the RaceiQ study
Made by: import
Created: 15 Oct, 23:10
Tests logged: 1

Mechanism and rationale

LOOK: hurdle run as a prep for a handicap chase, and its speed into the hurdles was in the upper half of the field.

The rule

(race_type = 'Chase' AND region = 'GB' AND is_handicap = 1 AND is_novice = 0 AND last_race_type = 'Hurdle' AND days_since_last_run <= 45 AND prior_chase_runs >= 2 AND (last_position IS NULL OR last_position >= 4) AND sp_decimal <= 15) AND l_entry_speed_pct IS NOT NULL AND l_entry_speed_pct >= 0.5

Reads: race_type, region, is_handicap, is_novice, last_race_type, days_since_last_run, prior_chase_runs, last_position, sp_decimal, l_entry_speed_pct

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec): not designed yet
Frozen: not frozen; The definition can still change.

Broad: (race_type = 'Chase' AND region = 'GB' AND is_handicap = 1 AND is_novice = 0 AND last_race_type = 'Hurdle' AND days_since_last_run <= 45 AND prior_chase_runs >= 2 AND (last_position IS NULL OR last_position >= 4) AND sp_decimal <= 15) AND l_entry_speed_pct IS NOT NULL AND l_entry_speed_pct >= 0.5
Kind: remarks
Origin: research/experiments/raceiq/results.jsonl
Refinements: none

Result (from the archive)

info broad · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets: 52
A/E: 1.25; winners vs the prices
SP return: +33.3%; level stakes
Betfair SP return: +50.9%; 52 bets with a BSP

0.80dashed line 1.00 · no interval recorded1.30

Strike rate 21.2%.

By period

betsA/E0.71.01.3

Earlier half30–

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

IQ142b-hurdle-prep-yes Discovery → KILLED import: best [broad] AMBER A/E 1.248 on 52 bets
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer
import result for IQ142b-hurdle-prep-yes (broad): info
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer
New idea IQ142b-hurdle-prep-yes: IQ142b: hurdle prep yes (import)
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.