Hypotheses · overlay · IQ143b-one-off-jumping-error-yes
IQ143b: one off jumping error yes
best [broad] AMBER A/E 1.186 on 179 bets
Starts the thread “IQ143b: one off jumping error yes” 1 hypothesis
- Proposed
- Designed
- Discovery
- Promising
- Falsification
- Frozen
- Vault
- Provisional
- Shadow
- Validated
- Live
- Source
- Imported from the RaceiQ study
- Made by
- import
- Created
- 15 Oct, 23:10
- Tests logged
- 1
Mechanism and rationale
LOOK: one-off jumping error in a chase, well beaten, and its Jump Index in earlier chases averaged in the better half of its fields.
The rule
(race_type = 'Chase' AND remarked_last3 = 3 AND jumping_errors_last3 = 1 AND last_jumping_error = 1 AND (last_position IS NULL OR last_beaten_lengths > 10)) AND s_jump_index_pct_prev IS NOT NULL AND s_jump_index_pct_prev >= 0.5
Reads: race_type, remarked_last3, jumping_errors_last3, last_jumping_error, last_position, last_beaten_lengths, s_jump_index_pct_prev
Pre-registration
- Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)
- not designed yet
- Frozen
- not frozen
- The definition can still change.
- Broad
(race_type = 'Chase' AND remarked_last3 = 3 AND jumping_errors_last3 = 1 AND last_jumping_error = 1 AND (last_position IS NULL OR last_beaten_lengths > 10)) AND s_jump_index_pct_prev IS NOT NULL AND s_jump_index_pct_prev >= 0.5
- Kind
remarks
- Origin
research/experiments/raceiq/results.jsonl
- Refinements
none
Result (from the archive)
info broad · 15 Oct, 23:10
- Bets
- 179
- A/E
- 1.19
- winners vs the prices
- SP return
- -18.6%
- level stakes
- Betfair SP return
- -1.1%
- 178 bets with a BSP
Strike rate 12.8%.
By period
Falsification
No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.
Sealed holdout (vault)
Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.
Forward record
No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.
Lineage
No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.
Agent runs
No agent has worked on this yet.
Timeline
IQ143b-one-off-jumping-error-yes Discovery → KILLED import: best [broad] AMBER A/E 1.186 on 179 bets
· importer
import result for IQ143b-one-off-jumping-error-yes (broad): info
· importer
New idea IQ143b-one-off-jumping-error-yes: IQ143b: one off jumping error yes (import)
· importer
Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.