Hypotheses · wide-top-speed · IQ150b-wide-slow

IQ150b: wide slow

PROMISINGgreenPassed discovery and is being attacked. Most promising ideas die here.

best [broad] GREEN A/E 1.085 on 349 bets

Starts the thread “IQ150b: wide slow” 1 hypothesis

Proposed
Designed
Discovery
Promising
Falsification
Frozen
Vault
Provisional
Shadow
Validated
Live

Source: Imported from the RaceiQ study
Made by: import
Created: 15 Oct, 23:10
Tests logged: 1

Mechanism and rationale

Wide trip, beaten under five, top speed in the lower half.

The rule

last_position > 1 AND last_beaten_lengths <= 5 AND last_slow_start = 0 AND NOT coalesce(last_run_style IN ('midfield', 'held_up') AND last_race_tilt >= 0.2 AND (last_position - 1.0) / max(last_field_size - 1, 1) <= 0.4, 0) AND l_top_speed_pct IS NOT NULL AND last_raced_wide = 1 AND l_top_speed_pct < 0.5

Reads: last_position, last_beaten_lengths, last_slow_start, last_run_style, last_race_tilt, last_field_size, l_top_speed_pct, last_raced_wide

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec): not designed yet
Frozen: not frozen; The definition can still change.

Broad: last_position > 1 AND last_beaten_lengths <= 5 AND last_slow_start = 0 AND NOT coalesce(last_run_style IN ('midfield', 'held_up') AND last_race_tilt >= 0.2 AND (last_position - 1.0) / max(last_field_size - 1, 1) <= 0.4, 0) AND l_top_speed_pct IS NOT NULL AND last_raced_wide = 1 AND l_top_speed_pct < 0.5
Kind: remarks
Origin: research/experiments/raceiq/results.jsonl
Refinements: none

Result (from the archive)

info broad · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets: 349
A/E: 1.08; winners vs the prices
SP return: -2.0%; level stakes
Betfair SP return: +18.8%; 349 bets with a BSP

0.80dashed line 1.00 · no interval recorded1.20

Strike rate 14.6%.

By period

betsA/E0.71.01.3

Earlier half1721.06

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

IQ150b-wide-slow Discovery → PROMISING import: best [broad] GREEN A/E 1.085 on 349 bets
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer
import result for IQ150b-wide-slow (broad): info
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer
New idea IQ150b-wide-slow: IQ150b: wide slow (import)
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Promising.