Hypotheses · remark-v-cost · IQ151a-error-in-remark-little-cost

IQ151a: error in remark little cost

PROMISINGnegativePassed discovery and is being attacked. Most promising ideas die here.

best [broad] NEGATIVE A/E 0.901 on 862 bets

Starts the thread “IQ151a: error in remark little cost” 1 hypothesis

Proposed
Designed
Discovery
Promising
Falsification
Frozen
Vault
Provisional
Shadow
Validated
Live

Source: Imported from the RaceiQ study
Made by: import
Created: 15 Oct, 23:10
Tests logged: 1

Mechanism and rationale

A: chase, beaten; jumping error in the remark, better half for ground gained. Predicted below the market.

The rule

race_type = 'Chase' AND last_race_type = 'Chase' AND last_position > 1 AND last_jumping_error IS NOT NULL AND l_lgj_pct IS NOT NULL AND last_jumping_error = 1 AND l_lgj_pct >= 0.5

Reads: race_type, last_race_type, last_position, last_jumping_error, l_lgj_pct

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec): not designed yet
Frozen: not frozen; The definition can still change.

Broad: race_type = 'Chase' AND last_race_type = 'Chase' AND last_position > 1 AND last_jumping_error IS NOT NULL AND l_lgj_pct IS NOT NULL AND last_jumping_error = 1 AND l_lgj_pct >= 0.5
Kind: remarks
Origin: research/experiments/raceiq/results.jsonl
Refinements: none

Result (from the archive)

info broad · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets: 862
A/E: 0.90; winners vs the prices
SP return: -26.3%; level stakes
Betfair SP return: -13.9%; 859 bets with a BSP

0.80dashed line 1.00 · no interval recorded1.20

Strike rate 13.9%.

By period

betsA/E0.71.01.3

Earlier half6390.88

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

IQ151a-error-in-remark-little-cost Discovery → PROMISING import: best [broad] NEGATIVE A/E 0.901 on 862 bets
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer
import result for IQ151a-error-in-remark-little-cost (broad): info
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer
New idea IQ151a-error-in-remark-little-cost: IQ151a: error in remark little cost (import)
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Promising.